science and politics 1: Nobel physicist David Jonathan Gross

During the holidays in January, I had the chance to exchange a few words with Nobel physicist David Jonathan Gross during his visit to Cebu. One of his more striking observations was that the lifestyles in the West (the so-called developed world) were not sustainable in the light of the growing evidence that human activity is in the main responsible for global warming of recent years.
But what struck me more was his observation that politics often trumps science but that the major problems of the world could not but be solved through politics (broadly defined), ultimately.
The visit was not covered well in the press, national or 'provincial'. That's why I'm publishing here my feature which was published in Cebu Daily News Jan. 21.

Hard Science not enough to solve mankind's contemporary problems---Nobel physicist

In a country where hard science is usually trumped by political 'science', the lecture by David J. Gross, one of the Nobel laureates for physics in 2004, on “The Lessons of Science” at the University of San Carlos College of Architecture and Fine Arts (CAFA) Jan. 11 was not only appropriate but serendipitously helpful. The lecture was part of a series under the auspices of the “Bridges---Dialogues Toward a Culture of Peace” program of the Vienna-based International Peace Foundation headed by Dr. Uwe Morawetz.

We say appropriate and helpful because protagonists in two major developments in Cebu and environs--- the offshore oil exploration in the Tañon Strait, and the proposed Cebu trans-axial highway--- are resorting to 'scientific' arguments to buttress their positions. At the national level, a debate is raging over the net environmental impacts of the widespread production and use of biofuels, and Filipinos are finding it difficult to sift through the so-called evidence and claims in regard to the Glorietta blast in October last year. In all these cases, preconceptions and political biases get in the way of objective evaluation of phenomena and the indentification of cause and effect.

But Dr. Gross himself accepts the limits of hard science and the need for politics in addressing mankind's most challenging contemporary problems, among them widespread hunger and the potentially catastrophic consequences of human-induced global warming. Far from being the stereotypical 'mad scientist' people tend to associate with genius, the well-groomed physicist looked more like the John Lithgow character in Third Rock from the Sun, often incredulous at the practices and beliefs of earthlings. The global character of these problems, he said, required internationalism and effective global government envisioned by Albert Einstein.

The Lessons of Science

The announced title of the lecture was “The Coming Revolutions in Fundamental Physics” but Dr. Gross thought that the time allotted would not do the subject justice. Also, he was unsure about the nature and interests of the audience. The core of the scientific method, 'discovered' about the same time USC was established over 400 years ago, according to Dr. Gross, is observation and experiment, and the only authority scientific ideas 'bow' to is agreement with nature itself, and not to “political power nor religious faith.” “All theories are provisional...(and are refined by continuing verification guaranteed) by 'making findings available to all.' The implications of the scientific method go beyond scientific research because a healthy scientific culture requires an open society. Science promotes tolerance and democracy because in scientific inquiry, all are considered equal, he said.

In his one-hour lecture, Dr. Gross briefly traced the development of science and emphasized how young its branches are: physics, 400 years; astrophysics/cosmology, 100; biology, 150.

Perils, predictions, and guarded optimism

The standing arsenals of nuclear weapons with the potential to end all life on earth within hours constitutes a continuing scandal, Dr. Gross said in response to a question on nuclear proliferation posed by this writer during a press conference shortly before the lecture. Checking the spread of nuclear weapons remained difficult if the superpowers held on to their stockpiles which, he said, were utterly useless. The physicist reiterated the nuclear threat in his lecture, where he warned that science can and has been used for both good and bad.

But the overwhelming theme of the lecture, however, was optimism over the future of mankind. Dr. Gross boldly predicted that in the next 100 to 1000 years, the human lifespan---which has doubled in the last two centuries--- would be ten times what it is now and that human life would spread to other areas in the universe. Closer to the present, he said, the behavioral sciences would achieve the status of 'real science' in the next 50-100 years.

It takes a Nobel-class physicist to re-inspire awe in what is already well accepted in the scientific community: that humans are puny creatures in one planet revolving around a sun which is one among a 100 billion in our galaxy, which is among 100 billion galaxies in the universe that is said to have started with the Big Bang 13.7 billion years ago. What was behind the Big Bang? When and how did time begin? Dr. Gross would not hazard a guess as to when these questions would be answered. Science, after all, continues to leave us with “informed, intelligent ignorance,” “We' ve learned that all of our concepts are provisional...subject to continuing questioning, challenging...and improvement.”

A feather for San Carlos

Dr. Gross, together with David Politzer and Frank Wilczek, received the Nobel for Physics for his theory on the strong force, the nuclear force that binds quarks, the smallest buildiing blocks of matter, and that binds the nucleus of the atom. He was conferred the San Carlos Borromeo Award by Fr. Roderick Salazar in behalf of the University.

The 400 year-old USC was one of two venues outside Metro Manila (the other was Ateneo de Davao) chosen by the International Peace Foundation for its continuing Bridges lectures,which promotes international understanding, among others, through visits by Nobel laureates that share its vision. Prior to the recent series in the Philippines, all of the lectures were held in Thailand. When USC president Fr. Roderick Salazar was first contacted by Dr. Morawetz, elation readily gave way to organization. It was Fr. Rod who chose Dr. Gross from the foundation's roster. It is not well known that science, physics and chemistry in particular, is a flagship program of USC. The Commission on Higher Education (CHED) has in fact recognized USC as a center of excellence in chemistry. Fr. Rod told me that preparations for the lecture begun early last year and that the university was asked to shoulder the business class tickets of Dr. Gross and company. The exposure of Cebu academia to Nobel-class high theory, and not just the prestige for USC, was well worth the expense, Fr. Rod said.

Two internationally recognized Filipino physicists, Christopher C. Bernido and Maria Victoria C. Bernido of the Research Center for Theoretical Physics at the Central Visayan Institute Foundation in Jagna, Bohol were on hand for the lecture. Christopher introduced the guest speaker while Marivic moderated the open forum. The CVIF is known for putting the Philippines on the world map in theoretical physics and has brought a number of Nobel physicists to the Center without fanfare.

The Bridges 2008 lecture series resumes in the Philippines February 4-8 with Prof. Finn Erling Kydland, Nobel economics laureate 2004, slated to discuss “Peace and economic development in the age of globalization” February 8 at the same venue in USC.

(Our thanks to N-ding Mission of the USC Library System for providing us with dvd's of the lecture and open forum. As USC apparently has no plans of transcribing the proceedings, I will take the trouble of doing that myself. The transcripts wil be made available here in due time).

Customer Care

I'm starting the year with a new blog on customer care, dedicated to readers who are tired of the crap from business, government, and even so-called non-government and non-profit organizations. More than ten years ago, I told Ceres Doyo that the Philippines lacked a genuine consumer rights movement, but the discussion did not lead to anything tangible. The new blog is my contribution to address the problem.

Local 'psychics' accept challenge of skeptical subversive

In a post on November 2, we discussed our doubts on the remote-sensing and spoon bending tricks played by members of the local Psychic Entertainment Network on ANC. The PEN has invited us to witness their tricks under 'laboratory' conditions or conditions we ourselves will specify so as to preclude any foolishness. Nomer Lasala of PEN has told me that Jaime Licauco will also be invited to vet what should be a public demonstration. We're meeting on Thursday and we'll keep you updated.

Bali high, Bali low: engaging the Rizalist on global warming and prematurely melting snow

Is global warming the new Y2k bug without a deadline? Dean Jorge Bocobo asks. His post on climate change has the promise of reason, but quickly degenerates into a polemic against environmentalism, the media, politics, and Al Gore.

• First, we agree with Dean that on any issue, a fair amount of skepticism is always healthy. But skepticism must be followed by due diligence, that is to say, an articulation of the reasons for skepticism. Otherwise it is simply contrarianism and obscurantism.
  
• We also are, like him, uncomfortable with science by consensus, and this discomfort has support in the history and the philosophy of science itself. Listening to the chair of the IPCC with Al Gore with CNN's Jonathan Mann made me squirm in my seat a little. Pachi sounded like a bureaucrat/propagandist who could tolerate a little dramatization of 'facts' for the purpose of 'raising consciousness.'
• Lastly, we think that any scientific assertion has to have a null hypothesis falsifiable under Karl Popper's definition.

Dean proceeds to ask:

• But is the price of further human progress the end of the world? Have we made war on the Earth itself, as Al Gore suggests and are locked in a relationship of Mutually Assured Destruction? Al Gore does not say this at all and never has.
• Can a tax save the earth from the laws of economics and thermodynamics, as well as close the Gap between the Rich and the Poor? Do the rich nations of the world owe pollution reparations to the poor nations, and do poor nations have an equal right to pollute the atmosphere, at least for a while until they have both sinned the same amount against Gaia? In fact, for a tax to be effective, it has to be designed with the use of economic theory, and theory does suggest that taxes can be used judiciously to narrow the gap between rich and poor.
  
• Is green the new yellow journalism? Is global warming the new Y2K Bug without a deadline? Well, media is always susceptible to yellow, regardless of the issue, and it is up to critical bloggers like Dean to help enlighten us.

Dean then calls our attention to the letter of Freeman Dyson and others "urging adaptation instead of futile attempts to 'fight' climate change with sin taxes." Adaptation is one of the options for mitigating global warming impacts and should always be on the menu, and sin taxes to punish polluters is an entirely different issue.

Economic theory suggests that markets cannot be relied on to bring the most efficient outcome in the presence of so-called 'externalities,' to which the phenomenon of air pollution belongs. If an individual does not consider the effect of his or her action on others, how can that bring efficiency indeed? The post also revisits the problem of the commons first elucidated formally by G. Hardin. But then Dean draws the wrong conclusion:

"An important conclusion about problems involving public commons is that there is no "technical solution" to the basic problem. It's like the game of tic-tac-toe. There is no way to win once all players become familiar with the game. Keeping the "commons" publicly accessible inexorably leads to the destruction of the commons. The only solution is to turn such commons into private property. I don't know how we do that to the global commons."

In fact, economists since Hardin have proposed many effective solutions to the 'commons' problem and a rich theoretical and practical literature has blossomed since then, from where political acts followed. To cite a few:

• Particulate matter pollution, addressed with economic measures guided by technology. In the Philippines, we took lead out of and reduced aromatics in gasoline, reduced sulfur in diesel, enforced emission standards on vehicles and factories.
• Water and solid waste pollution, similar measures.

" I am also not sure yet how Gore's ideas fit into this framework. If the new CO2 tax he is proposing is likened to a sin tax, we only have to look at the continued prevalence of gambling, drinking and smoking to wonder if this is the right way to go. On the other hand, if it spurs the development of new technologies that don't have the problem of discharging CO2 into the atmosphere, could a case not be made for such taxes being beneficial?"

Sin taxes are not meant to eliminate bad behavior, bad to reduce incidence. The reason sin taxes are superior to income taxes is simple: the latter punishes effort, the former discourages 'sin.' In fact, the argument is independent of how the proceeds are eventually spent, but if these are spent for the 'public good,' so much the better.

Notes:

1. I didn't go to Bali thinking I had better use of my time. But the conference did redound to some good.
2. I have no pretensions of being an 'environmentalist,' but with my white hair and limited experience, I have successfully passed myself off as an 'environmental and energy economist' and have contributed to some national legislation.
3. In the summer of 1993. I attended an environmental economics policy course in Harvard at a time when climate science still had a lot of room for doubt. The call at that time was for no-regrets policies, which meant addressing problems with clearer impacts but had the side effect of reducing GHG emissions. Since then, there has been sizable progress in the theory. But that does not mean skepticism is no longer warranted.
4. On the eve of New Year's eve 2000, I missed my train to Grand Rapids from Chicago and had to pay an extraordinary amount for an ordinary room in the windy city.
   
5. In a future post, I will try to discuss the political economy of the issue.
   

Why a win-win outcome is unlikely: Sumilao (3)

Mrs. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has agreed to meet with the Sumilao farmers on Monday, after the agrarian reform secretary issued his earth-shaking decision: status quo! What's on Mrs. Arroyo's mind? I asked the spouse of a cabinet secretary. Nothing really. She just wants to listen, or to appear to listen. What should we advise the farmers? Go to Malacanang and have merienda, it is their right, after all that's supposed to be the hall of the people.

But is a win-win outcome possible? Yes, but highly improbable. Based on the legal briefs I've studied, the land rightly belongs to the farmers. If San Miguel Foods claims that it can put the land to much better use, and for the benefit of not just the Mapalad farmers to boot, then it should first make a decent proposal to compensate the farmers for the land, to include the foregone income for the past 10 years or so. Instead, it has evidently chosen the tack of divide and rule, dangling the prospect of income for the non-claimant farmers in Sumilao, after probably having bribed the governor and father of this dubious character in the senate, who is full of crap about biofuels blah blah blah and advocating without understanding, and Sumilao town officials. This much was evident to me when the San Miguel Foods cabal, including Jess Arranza of the Federation of Philippine Industries appeared in Korina Sanchez's show last Wednesday. She was apparently not well-prepared and did not ask the right questions of the farmers who were on the show earlier.
I'm not an advocate of national food security because I believe millions more Filipino consumers deserve the best prices for staple and other food. Agrarian reform is a means for asset redistribution and not to tie farmers to the land forever. What they want to do with the land is up to them. The greater and more realistic aspiration is income stability, security, and mobility. I am not sentimental about land, but if the farmers are, that is their right.

Notes:

1. I don't really know what the liability of Norberto Quisumbing Jr., whom I worked for in the 1980's, is. I hear from Cebu that he's busy trying to leave a legacy, and has just sued a columnist for The Philippine Star.
2. After having been barred from entering the compound to deliver their position paper last Monday, the farmers relented and had it received at the gate. Such law-abiding and humble citizens in contrast to the officials of San Miguel Foods. Yesterday, all they could do was stage a sit-down strike and noise barrage against the status quo order, which is not a good idea; they'd only ruin their eardrums and get 'kubal' on their 'lubot.' A better idea is to stalk Nasser Pangandaman and invade the privacy of his home.
   
3. In my visits to the Soviet Union and the East Bloc in the 1980's petty or small-holder farmers were looked down on with great suspicion as lacking in revolutionary spirit in contrast to the real proletariat. I have since then taken a more liberal view.
4. I've got nothing against Korina Sanchez. In fact, I really like her program, especially when she's absent and Pia Hontiveros or Twink Macaraig or Pinky Webb sub for her.
   

DAR's gift to the Sumilao farmers on Human Rights Day (2)

The Department of Agrarian Reform celebrated Human Rights Day by betraying the human rights of the very farmers whose existence is its very reason for being. As the farmers prepared to go up to the offices of the DAR secretary, they were barred from entering the compound by about eight security guards, on orders of the secretary himself. . Minutes later police from Camp Karingal arrived to keep the peace, very likely the peace of mind of San Miguel Foods’ Danding Cojuangco and Ramon Ang, whose well-paid lawyers pleaded ignorance about the laws of the land they have so obviously violated. Where were the born-again stars in national politics?

How do I know all these? Simple, I was with the farmers from two in the afternoon up to almost eight in the evening. And why did I feel obliged to lend my support in body and not just mind? Never mind, but you can read the previous entry in this blog. I will not go into the chronology on the issue. If you are concerned, there’s enough material on the web. Among those are the essays of Winnie Monsod, who discussed the latest findings of Arsenio Balisacan, my professor almost 20 years ago in agricultural economics; and Joaquin Bernas, as my atheism does not bar me from admiring Jesuit scholarship. Here, I would rather discuss what has not been reported in the mainstream media, including the Philippine Daily Inquirer and ABS-CBN.

Earlier in the afternoon, the farmers and their leaders inside their talipapa camp just outside the gates of the DAR discussed the position paper the DAR secretary had asked them to submit by the end of Monday. They felt they really didn’t have to anymore as their positions and petitions were already known not only to the guards of DAR but also to the lizard population on the ceiling of Nasser Pangandaman’s well-appointed office. (Much as I would like to sympathize with Pangandaman who has been busy counting the white hair in his nose and daydreaming about Christmas lechon, he makes me want to go vegetarian). But they did, like lowly farmers who obey the laws of the land. Or wanted to. The rule of law? Whose law and whose rules?

At around five, the guards suddenly padlocked and chained the gates. Then a receiving clerk appeared and said she was authorized to accept the position paper.

“Why don’t you relocate your office to the gates then?” the farmers asked. The clerk said those were her orders.

“Has San Miguel submitted its position paper?” lawyer Marlon Manuel asked the clerk. She didn’t know or would not say.

“Where is the secretary?” A few minutes later a young man who claimed he was from the secretariat explained to ‘Kaka,’ a coordinator for the farmers, “We don’t want any trouble.” “And neither do we,” Kaka said.

“Who gave the order to lock the gates?” I asked the guards. “We don’t know,” they replied.

After more than an hour, the farmers decided to cool off and celebrate mass with priests and nuns from Mindanao. At the risk of being excommunicated from my own congregation, I stayed. When I left before eight, it wasn’t clear whether the Sumilao farmers would be home for Christmas.

Notes:

· I was impressed by niece Charo Logarta who interviewed the leaders of the farmers in fluent Cebuano. Because I know my cousin (her dad) had left Cebu as a child, I assumed the daughter would know only English and Tagalog. I was wrong. Noel Cabangon came to sing a few songs in solidarity and I could not hold back tears. Someone let out air from the left rear tire of my car, but a farmer who also drives a jeepney in Bukidnon took care of it. There are Cebuano words which can’t be expressed in Tagalog or English: Pastilan! Intaon! Lechong baboy! Lecheng yawa! And that was exactly how I felt).

· It may very well be that the San Miguel plan would be better for the economy overall, but this a question of social justice and law and not of gross domestic product. It’s not jiust the economy stupid! It’s human rights and justice. If our national life were to be dominated by just economic efficiency, we would reopen the debate about democracy,dictatorship and development. Nyet! But more on this in the next post.

The rights of the Sumilao farmers (1)

Among the strange coincidences in my long life are that in some way I had been associated with the anti-heroes in the struggle of the Sumilao farmers for land:

1. After graduation (chemical engineering) in 1980, I was appointed executive assistant to the president of the Norkis Group of Companies, a certain Norberto Quisumbing Jr.
2. About a year later, a certain Ruben Torres interviewed me for a job in the Ministry of Energy.
3. In 1993, I was asked to comment on proposals in the Senate to make agrarian reformed lands fungible by a senator considered close to Fidel Ramos.

Last Friday I paid the farmers camped in front of the Department of Agrarian Reform a brief visit. I hope to be able to converse with them again today. They have my undying support.

Get well Rene Saguisag

The memory just can't be erased. Rene Saguisag was one of the finest symbols in the fight against dictatorship in the 80's. He saved many lives and suffered many indignities. Of one thing we can be sure: he remained true to the call to protect the down-trodden. Get well. Our condolences on the passing of Dulce.

By the way, we find this joke a bit too early in the telling to be funny.

Open those gates!

Had I run and won for captain in my barangay, one of the first things I would have done was to open the gates. In the neighborhood I live in (Teachers Village, UP Village, Sikatuna Village) many roads, maintained and lit by taxpayers, have been expropriated by homeowners, including my favorite senator, Miriam Defensor Santiago, who have carved for themselves private enclaves on public property.
All one has to do is have a petition on grounds of barangay and national security approved by the village council. Howard Calleja, whose English and logic leave much to be desired, was just interviewed by Ricky Carandang on the subject. If it's private property then there's not much controversy, but the state still can exercise right of way. But public property! (hey we don't need more legal analysis; what happened to Dean Bocobo's show?).
Because of these gates, one has to go through long detours at night, contributing to unnecessarily to climate change.
I wonder why the so-called 'progressive' and 'left-wing' and 'pro-poor' groups don't bitch about this. Maybe their leaders live in these villages?

The captain of my barangay

six paradoxes and a little candor

According to some pundits, the fabric of our society is about to be shred to pieces, even if there is no sign of any thread which can be woven to clothe us while we try to find a warm home henceforth.

Poverty and discontent are widespread, as is confusion. Let me cite some paradoxes:

1. The economy is improving while average family incomes are declining;
2. Average family incomes are declining even as more and more are going abroad to remit incomes to their families;
3. Remittances are increasing while real incomes are decreasing;
4. The people who go abroad are unhappy but continue to keep ties with the country;
5. They continue to keep ties with the country but their families remain unhappy;
6. They are unhappy but they continue to tolerate GMA.
   

More than ten years ago, a friend who spent more than six years in Moscow to study cinematography shared this joke with me:

The 6 paradoxes of socialism

1. there is no unemployment but nobody works;
2. nobody works but everybody gets paid;
3. everybody gets paid but the shops are empty;
4. the shops are empty but all get what they need;
5. they all get what they need but remain unhappy;
6. they remain unhappy but they all vote for the communist party.

The comparison might be a little stretched, but there are a few parallels. Let me be candid. I took part, as a communist then, in securing a scholarship for the friend above in Moscow. I have many unanswered questions about what may come next if we kick out Gloria. But I can't stand the lying that passes off as governance.

My goodness, Ambassador Kristie Kenney!

If you were quoted properly in this Inquirer report US envoy backs 'accidental gas explosion' theory, you should immediately issue a clarification.

BAGUIO CITY -- The Philippine National Police’s “accidental gas explosion” theory has found another backer in US Ambassador Kristie Kenney, who said American experts had also concluded that the Oct. 19 blast at the Glorietta 2 mall in Makati City was “a tragic accident.”

Kenney, who was in Baguio for several engagements, said those saying otherwise should realize what a terror attack in Metro Manila would mean to the country as a whole.

“[An accident in the heart of a city] is never a good thing … but it is much better than having it [turn out] to be a bomb,” the ambassador said Tuesday.

“If there was a bombing at a shopping mall in the middle of Metro Manila, I want you to think about the kind of travel advisory America would have to put out and the devastating impact that would have on business,” she said, adding:

“I don’t think investors worry about an accident,” although the business community would “obviously want to know why it happened.”

You should realize by now that your unfortunate remarks just add fuel to the fertile minds of local conspiracy theorists who will now say you're in cahoots with authorities in a very complicated cover-up, because the logic of your statements is this: better think about the effects of a theory borne out by the facts, because they can be more devastating than the blast. Better to tailor the 'cause' to the 'desired effect' is what you seem to have said.

This is how the embassy release should read:

"We support all efforts to let the evidence speak for itself."

Publish this and you can gracefully shut up.

Snared in Pinky's Web

Helplessly trapped in Pinky's web on ANC this morning was the arachnophobic Rep. Prospero Nograles, who confessed on the Malacanang meeting last Saturday. Naplantsa na ang gusot. All's well in the family known as the Mafia in Sicily.

Jose de Venecia to Gloria: There's nothing you can do to change my mind about you...
Gloria: Buang man ka dong. Pakusia kos imong bugan bi.

Pakistan and the Philippines: Notes on variations on a theme of oft-sung songs dictators sing

After hearing the news on Pakistan yesterday, I asked an American colleague whether he could imagine GMA taking a leaf from the best-selling song hits of Musharaf. After a few glasses of wine we listed the following observations about dictators:

1. They are infected by a virus called messianism. They want to save us from ourselves.
2. That they claim they can do so because they know something we don't.
3. And when we ask for the info we don't know, they say we shouldn't even know what it is we don't know.
   
4. They have info we don't because we can't handle it soberly.
5. They can handle the info better because, they don't really want to rub it in, they are superior.
6. They are superior, because, not having been breast-fed, they steeled themselves drinking milk from the bottle.
7. But most of all, they were not born with sin, having been immaculately conceived inside the womb of their parents' cow.
8. Moo! You know nothing about national security!
9. They get invited to international conventions of solipsists and we don't.
   

All dictators spring from the old obscurantist tradition that they hear things from the creator reserved for true believers.

As oil prices poise to breach a hundred per barrel, energy secretary Angelo Reyes does the right thing: Nothing.

Reyes is doing right by not announcing any populist moves. After all, at least as far as I'm concerned, the oil deregulation regime has been doing just fine. If we were in the late '80's or mid-90's, the scandal-ridden administration would already have been ousted by a coup by right-wing adventurists, who, in those times, timed their moves based on the movements of prices in the world oil market.

It is now close to a decade since we finally smashed the old illusion that oil price subsidies were pro-poor, perpetuated for a long time by the middle and upper class leaders of so-called 'people's organizations.' Note that at that time nominal prices were below 20 dollars per barrel. Now the high is about five times. But we don't hear of any outrageous manifestos that the increase is caused by the local ruling class in conspiracy with foreign capitalists, do we?

I have a list of measures the energy secretary might consider, but none of these will lower gasoline prices for the middle class. In the meantime, he should just stand his ground.

Here's a list of easy energy saving tips promoted by Iran's revered president.

Barangay elections and how Abalos is laughing now...

If you're reading this, you're probably one of those who didn't bother to vote in the barangay elections. You can be excused because most in the middle class don't appreciate what village officials really do, aside from ensuring our homes and cars in our 'exclusive' villages, some situated on streets actually maintained and lit by the taxpayer at large.

But this new scandal at the Comelec cries out for attention.

To ANC's Marieton Pacheco: did they bend your rmind?

Members of the Psychic Entertainment Network were featured in ANC yesterday. One remote-sensor, a mind reader, and a telekineticist. The mind-reader begged off from displaying his skills. Yes, the trio were careful to describe the abilities as 'skills' rather than as special powers.
The remote-sensor, with a metal blindfold, was able to pick milk from a set of five glasses; the other four contained water. In his commercial act, he said, the four would have contained acid.
The fork bender impressed Pacheco because after quick hand-wringing movements, he seemed to have bent the teeth and even the handle. Had I been there, I would have re-arranged the tests to eliminate loopholes in the demonstrations.
I would have placed a black hood on the remote-sensor and a plastic sheet in front of the bender.
Here's an informative video from Michael Shermer, my favorite skeptic, on spoonbending.

Here's my challenge to Marieton. If you claim you were not taken in for a good ride, let's invite the PEN at my expense and at a place and time of their choosing.
If they pass my tests, good. We can hire them to lecture to all the bloggers out there, brimming with self-importance, to hone their skills enough so that we can finally concentrate on GMA, and force her to leave Malacanang telekinetically. Deal?

Mukha Mukasey; implications for the Philippines

The Democrats, because of attorney-general-nominee Mukasey's amiable face, are inclined to confirm him, except for this one fly in the ointment: Mukasey refuses to say whether waterboarding constitutes torture.
In a previous post, I pointed out that a senate Democrat mentioned the case of a US soldier who was prosecuted for using waterboarding on a Filipino insurgent. The effect of the method is to make the captive feel he is drowning. Now, if that is not torture, I don't know what is.
In his speech at the Heritage Foundation yesterday, George W. explained his tortured logic why Congress should just confirm the nominee immediately:

1. If the menu of methods in interrogation were to be published, suspected terrorists could adopt mitigation measures. How? By bringing scuba gear or snorkels all the time, during suicide missions, especially, I suppose. And Osama might send his trainees to explore the rich marine life in the Philippines in aid of proper certification as a torture-proof and dead terrorist. That makes sense and would be good for Philippine tourism. (How about this Ace Durano and GMA? Why don't you testify bravely against your idol?)
   
2. Mukasey has not been briefed on the method and could not possibly make a judgment. So brief him immediately then.
3. The whimpy Democrats, ever soft on national security, are just making political hay.
4. Finally leading to his pitch on the "war on terror", soi-disant, the US should employ all means to accomplish the ends of his foreign and phallic fallacy.
   

The New York Times explains Mukasey's refusal better: the administration does not want to open the door to prosecution of those who used the method before it came to public attention.
Does this debate have any implications for the Philippines? Are our definitions of torture rigorous? What are these?

Ruben Carranza Jr., formerly defense assistant secretary under Erap, recently reminded me that since EDSA 1, no one has been prosecuted successfully for torture. What a shame.

A new voice on ANC?

At dinner last Sunday, my guest revealed that DJB_Rizalist would soon have a variety/talk show on ANC. That would be a fine addition to the channel's steadily improving menu. The guest, a mid-level Palace official, said there were just a few more hurdles before this new baby of Twink Macaraeg could be delivered by Caesarian bisection. Hail,hail! I will not reveal her identity on grounds of national security, on which Dean is notoriously obsessed.

The Dean, the most famous , opinionated, outspoken, and sometimes bullying 'neocon' blogger from the Philippines will now have access to a greater audience, or, should I say, we will now have greater access to his independent and sometimes courageously outrageous opinions.
The Philippine Onion's media critic, The Small and Medium, has the complete story. Tim Sebastian rejects ANC offer.

Donald Rumsfeld on Glorietta blast:it's WMD, stupid!

This is my response to John Nery's recent blog Sleepless in Glorietta:

Dear John,

Skepticism is generally healthy, especially when it is solidly grounded. I have examined the premises of yours and find them wanting. To summarize, you “have a hard time believing” the conclusion because:

1. A few hours after the explosion, the PNP Chief himself aired the possibility that the blast was caused by a bomb. Yet, the well-written editorial you adverted to had this correct assertion: We recognize their testing of new theories as consistent with the emergence of new facts. Rather than being a basis for skepticism, this point tends to diminish it.
2. The visits by the PNP top brass to the various newsrooms were highly unusual. It could be that this is merely the way the new Chief does business, but as one can readily see from a comparison of the same-but-different front pages of the Inquirer and the Star the day after the visit, this kind of unusual attention stokes a journalist’s hard-earned skepticism. Couldn’t this have (when was this visit?) been just a media management attempt on such a disconcerting incident? I wonder why the Inquirer did not have the more appropriate headline “PNP officers visit PDI, eat own crow in front of editors!” consistent with your head “Palace fixes 190 congressmen” on the bribes scandal.
3. The police generals were quick to adopt an aw-shucks attitude when questioned about the technical details of the (new) theory they were proposing. But since then, police have also released a lot of information tending toward the gas blast theory, including the two reports featured in a special section of PDI with many photos of the basement which showed no signs of a bomb explosion.
4. My own sources tell me about other findings, other “facts” unaccounted for in the new theory. Unfortunately, I am not in a position to corroborate what they say. Why don’t you share these ‘facts’ for the careful consideration of your anxious readers? The Inquirer should also post the Australian report in its website.

The officials should be castigated for their rush to judgment early on. On the other hand we can’t be faulted for our rush to skepticism considering the current political atmosphere. But might we be faulted for a lingering, adamant, and unreasonable skepticism oblivious of the established facts already made available? A professional skeptic like me was instantly skeptical of the members of the Psychic Entertainment Network featured in ANC yesterday, but that is because of my appreciation of mainstream science. Would you happen to know of any arcane scientific findings which cast doubt on the gas blast theory? In other words, tell us what in the future needs to be established for you to find the theory easier to believe.

Before I forget let me attempt to dispose of the initial finding of RDX on one sample from the ground floor. In my earlier and long blogs on the subject, I raised the possibility that this was simply a false positive, owing to the limitations of the test itself. Because of the absence of reference to this in the reports of the foreign investigators, I take it that they were not able to replicate the result, and did not emphasize the fact out of professional courtesy to their local counterparts. I have read almost all the PDI articles on the blast but could not find any reference to any of your reporters pursuing this false positive angle.

Finally, your skepticism reminds me of ex-defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s disengenuously original defensive remark: The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence in regard to the failure of investigators to find the slightest trace of WMD in Iraq post invasion.

Sincerely yours,

viking logarta

Dead but not buried

If you're reading this coming in from the Halloween holidays, let me tell you this. If you thought Speaker Joe de Venecia will no longer be around, either you are dead, or just dead wrong. While you were away, the presidential security guard (PSG) was able to thwart another Palace coup. By the dead asking why she had not joined them as she had promised years ago.

The dead but not buried.

After all, the dead represent the largest constituency in Philipine politics.