Local 'psychics' accept challenge of skeptical subversive

In a post on November 2, we discussed our doubts on the remote-sensing and spoon bending tricks played by members of the local Psychic Entertainment Network on ANC. The PEN has invited us to witness their tricks under 'laboratory' conditions or conditions we ourselves will specify so as to preclude any foolishness. Nomer Lasala of PEN has told me that Jaime Licauco will also be invited to vet what should be a public demonstration. We're meeting on Thursday and we'll keep you updated.

Bali high, Bali low: engaging the Rizalist on global warming and prematurely melting snow

Is global warming the new Y2k bug without a deadline? Dean Jorge Bocobo asks. His post on climate change has the promise of reason, but quickly degenerates into a polemic against environmentalism, the media, politics, and Al Gore.

• First, we agree with Dean that on any issue, a fair amount of skepticism is always healthy. But skepticism must be followed by due diligence, that is to say, an articulation of the reasons for skepticism. Otherwise it is simply contrarianism and obscurantism.
  
• We also are, like him, uncomfortable with science by consensus, and this discomfort has support in the history and the philosophy of science itself. Listening to the chair of the IPCC with Al Gore with CNN's Jonathan Mann made me squirm in my seat a little. Pachi sounded like a bureaucrat/propagandist who could tolerate a little dramatization of 'facts' for the purpose of 'raising consciousness.'
• Lastly, we think that any scientific assertion has to have a null hypothesis falsifiable under Karl Popper's definition.

Dean proceeds to ask:

• But is the price of further human progress the end of the world? Have we made war on the Earth itself, as Al Gore suggests and are locked in a relationship of Mutually Assured Destruction? Al Gore does not say this at all and never has.
• Can a tax save the earth from the laws of economics and thermodynamics, as well as close the Gap between the Rich and the Poor? Do the rich nations of the world owe pollution reparations to the poor nations, and do poor nations have an equal right to pollute the atmosphere, at least for a while until they have both sinned the same amount against Gaia? In fact, for a tax to be effective, it has to be designed with the use of economic theory, and theory does suggest that taxes can be used judiciously to narrow the gap between rich and poor.
  
• Is green the new yellow journalism? Is global warming the new Y2K Bug without a deadline? Well, media is always susceptible to yellow, regardless of the issue, and it is up to critical bloggers like Dean to help enlighten us.

Dean then calls our attention to the letter of Freeman Dyson and others "urging adaptation instead of futile attempts to 'fight' climate change with sin taxes." Adaptation is one of the options for mitigating global warming impacts and should always be on the menu, and sin taxes to punish polluters is an entirely different issue.

Economic theory suggests that markets cannot be relied on to bring the most efficient outcome in the presence of so-called 'externalities,' to which the phenomenon of air pollution belongs. If an individual does not consider the effect of his or her action on others, how can that bring efficiency indeed? The post also revisits the problem of the commons first elucidated formally by G. Hardin. But then Dean draws the wrong conclusion:

"An important conclusion about problems involving public commons is that there is no "technical solution" to the basic problem. It's like the game of tic-tac-toe. There is no way to win once all players become familiar with the game. Keeping the "commons" publicly accessible inexorably leads to the destruction of the commons. The only solution is to turn such commons into private property. I don't know how we do that to the global commons."

In fact, economists since Hardin have proposed many effective solutions to the 'commons' problem and a rich theoretical and practical literature has blossomed since then, from where political acts followed. To cite a few:

• Particulate matter pollution, addressed with economic measures guided by technology. In the Philippines, we took lead out of and reduced aromatics in gasoline, reduced sulfur in diesel, enforced emission standards on vehicles and factories.
• Water and solid waste pollution, similar measures.

" I am also not sure yet how Gore's ideas fit into this framework. If the new CO2 tax he is proposing is likened to a sin tax, we only have to look at the continued prevalence of gambling, drinking and smoking to wonder if this is the right way to go. On the other hand, if it spurs the development of new technologies that don't have the problem of discharging CO2 into the atmosphere, could a case not be made for such taxes being beneficial?"

Sin taxes are not meant to eliminate bad behavior, bad to reduce incidence. The reason sin taxes are superior to income taxes is simple: the latter punishes effort, the former discourages 'sin.' In fact, the argument is independent of how the proceeds are eventually spent, but if these are spent for the 'public good,' so much the better.

Notes:

1. I didn't go to Bali thinking I had better use of my time. But the conference did redound to some good.
2. I have no pretensions of being an 'environmentalist,' but with my white hair and limited experience, I have successfully passed myself off as an 'environmental and energy economist' and have contributed to some national legislation.
3. In the summer of 1993. I attended an environmental economics policy course in Harvard at a time when climate science still had a lot of room for doubt. The call at that time was for no-regrets policies, which meant addressing problems with clearer impacts but had the side effect of reducing GHG emissions. Since then, there has been sizable progress in the theory. But that does not mean skepticism is no longer warranted.
4. On the eve of New Year's eve 2000, I missed my train to Grand Rapids from Chicago and had to pay an extraordinary amount for an ordinary room in the windy city.
   
5. In a future post, I will try to discuss the political economy of the issue.
   

Why a win-win outcome is unlikely: Sumilao (3)

Mrs. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has agreed to meet with the Sumilao farmers on Monday, after the agrarian reform secretary issued his earth-shaking decision: status quo! What's on Mrs. Arroyo's mind? I asked the spouse of a cabinet secretary. Nothing really. She just wants to listen, or to appear to listen. What should we advise the farmers? Go to Malacanang and have merienda, it is their right, after all that's supposed to be the hall of the people.

But is a win-win outcome possible? Yes, but highly improbable. Based on the legal briefs I've studied, the land rightly belongs to the farmers. If San Miguel Foods claims that it can put the land to much better use, and for the benefit of not just the Mapalad farmers to boot, then it should first make a decent proposal to compensate the farmers for the land, to include the foregone income for the past 10 years or so. Instead, it has evidently chosen the tack of divide and rule, dangling the prospect of income for the non-claimant farmers in Sumilao, after probably having bribed the governor and father of this dubious character in the senate, who is full of crap about biofuels blah blah blah and advocating without understanding, and Sumilao town officials. This much was evident to me when the San Miguel Foods cabal, including Jess Arranza of the Federation of Philippine Industries appeared in Korina Sanchez's show last Wednesday. She was apparently not well-prepared and did not ask the right questions of the farmers who were on the show earlier.
I'm not an advocate of national food security because I believe millions more Filipino consumers deserve the best prices for staple and other food. Agrarian reform is a means for asset redistribution and not to tie farmers to the land forever. What they want to do with the land is up to them. The greater and more realistic aspiration is income stability, security, and mobility. I am not sentimental about land, but if the farmers are, that is their right.

Notes:

1. I don't really know what the liability of Norberto Quisumbing Jr., whom I worked for in the 1980's, is. I hear from Cebu that he's busy trying to leave a legacy, and has just sued a columnist for The Philippine Star.
2. After having been barred from entering the compound to deliver their position paper last Monday, the farmers relented and had it received at the gate. Such law-abiding and humble citizens in contrast to the officials of San Miguel Foods. Yesterday, all they could do was stage a sit-down strike and noise barrage against the status quo order, which is not a good idea; they'd only ruin their eardrums and get 'kubal' on their 'lubot.' A better idea is to stalk Nasser Pangandaman and invade the privacy of his home.
   
3. In my visits to the Soviet Union and the East Bloc in the 1980's petty or small-holder farmers were looked down on with great suspicion as lacking in revolutionary spirit in contrast to the real proletariat. I have since then taken a more liberal view.
4. I've got nothing against Korina Sanchez. In fact, I really like her program, especially when she's absent and Pia Hontiveros or Twink Macaraig or Pinky Webb sub for her.
   

DAR's gift to the Sumilao farmers on Human Rights Day (2)

The Department of Agrarian Reform celebrated Human Rights Day by betraying the human rights of the very farmers whose existence is its very reason for being. As the farmers prepared to go up to the offices of the DAR secretary, they were barred from entering the compound by about eight security guards, on orders of the secretary himself. . Minutes later police from Camp Karingal arrived to keep the peace, very likely the peace of mind of San Miguel Foods’ Danding Cojuangco and Ramon Ang, whose well-paid lawyers pleaded ignorance about the laws of the land they have so obviously violated. Where were the born-again stars in national politics?

How do I know all these? Simple, I was with the farmers from two in the afternoon up to almost eight in the evening. And why did I feel obliged to lend my support in body and not just mind? Never mind, but you can read the previous entry in this blog. I will not go into the chronology on the issue. If you are concerned, there’s enough material on the web. Among those are the essays of Winnie Monsod, who discussed the latest findings of Arsenio Balisacan, my professor almost 20 years ago in agricultural economics; and Joaquin Bernas, as my atheism does not bar me from admiring Jesuit scholarship. Here, I would rather discuss what has not been reported in the mainstream media, including the Philippine Daily Inquirer and ABS-CBN.

Earlier in the afternoon, the farmers and their leaders inside their talipapa camp just outside the gates of the DAR discussed the position paper the DAR secretary had asked them to submit by the end of Monday. They felt they really didn’t have to anymore as their positions and petitions were already known not only to the guards of DAR but also to the lizard population on the ceiling of Nasser Pangandaman’s well-appointed office. (Much as I would like to sympathize with Pangandaman who has been busy counting the white hair in his nose and daydreaming about Christmas lechon, he makes me want to go vegetarian). But they did, like lowly farmers who obey the laws of the land. Or wanted to. The rule of law? Whose law and whose rules?

At around five, the guards suddenly padlocked and chained the gates. Then a receiving clerk appeared and said she was authorized to accept the position paper.

“Why don’t you relocate your office to the gates then?” the farmers asked. The clerk said those were her orders.

“Has San Miguel submitted its position paper?” lawyer Marlon Manuel asked the clerk. She didn’t know or would not say.

“Where is the secretary?” A few minutes later a young man who claimed he was from the secretariat explained to ‘Kaka,’ a coordinator for the farmers, “We don’t want any trouble.” “And neither do we,” Kaka said.

“Who gave the order to lock the gates?” I asked the guards. “We don’t know,” they replied.

After more than an hour, the farmers decided to cool off and celebrate mass with priests and nuns from Mindanao. At the risk of being excommunicated from my own congregation, I stayed. When I left before eight, it wasn’t clear whether the Sumilao farmers would be home for Christmas.

Notes:

· I was impressed by niece Charo Logarta who interviewed the leaders of the farmers in fluent Cebuano. Because I know my cousin (her dad) had left Cebu as a child, I assumed the daughter would know only English and Tagalog. I was wrong. Noel Cabangon came to sing a few songs in solidarity and I could not hold back tears. Someone let out air from the left rear tire of my car, but a farmer who also drives a jeepney in Bukidnon took care of it. There are Cebuano words which can’t be expressed in Tagalog or English: Pastilan! Intaon! Lechong baboy! Lecheng yawa! And that was exactly how I felt).

· It may very well be that the San Miguel plan would be better for the economy overall, but this a question of social justice and law and not of gross domestic product. It’s not jiust the economy stupid! It’s human rights and justice. If our national life were to be dominated by just economic efficiency, we would reopen the debate about democracy,dictatorship and development. Nyet! But more on this in the next post.

The rights of the Sumilao farmers (1)

Among the strange coincidences in my long life are that in some way I had been associated with the anti-heroes in the struggle of the Sumilao farmers for land:

1. After graduation (chemical engineering) in 1980, I was appointed executive assistant to the president of the Norkis Group of Companies, a certain Norberto Quisumbing Jr.
2. About a year later, a certain Ruben Torres interviewed me for a job in the Ministry of Energy.
3. In 1993, I was asked to comment on proposals in the Senate to make agrarian reformed lands fungible by a senator considered close to Fidel Ramos.

Last Friday I paid the farmers camped in front of the Department of Agrarian Reform a brief visit. I hope to be able to converse with them again today. They have my undying support.

Get well Rene Saguisag

The memory just can't be erased. Rene Saguisag was one of the finest symbols in the fight against dictatorship in the 80's. He saved many lives and suffered many indignities. Of one thing we can be sure: he remained true to the call to protect the down-trodden. Get well. Our condolences on the passing of Dulce.

By the way, we find this joke a bit too early in the telling to be funny.

Open those gates!

Had I run and won for captain in my barangay, one of the first things I would have done was to open the gates. In the neighborhood I live in (Teachers Village, UP Village, Sikatuna Village) many roads, maintained and lit by taxpayers, have been expropriated by homeowners, including my favorite senator, Miriam Defensor Santiago, who have carved for themselves private enclaves on public property.
All one has to do is have a petition on grounds of barangay and national security approved by the village council. Howard Calleja, whose English and logic leave much to be desired, was just interviewed by Ricky Carandang on the subject. If it's private property then there's not much controversy, but the state still can exercise right of way. But public property! (hey we don't need more legal analysis; what happened to Dean Bocobo's show?).
Because of these gates, one has to go through long detours at night, contributing to unnecessarily to climate change.
I wonder why the so-called 'progressive' and 'left-wing' and 'pro-poor' groups don't bitch about this. Maybe their leaders live in these villages?

The captain of my barangay

six paradoxes and a little candor

According to some pundits, the fabric of our society is about to be shred to pieces, even if there is no sign of any thread which can be woven to clothe us while we try to find a warm home henceforth.

Poverty and discontent are widespread, as is confusion. Let me cite some paradoxes:

1. The economy is improving while average family incomes are declining;
2. Average family incomes are declining even as more and more are going abroad to remit incomes to their families;
3. Remittances are increasing while real incomes are decreasing;
4. The people who go abroad are unhappy but continue to keep ties with the country;
5. They continue to keep ties with the country but their families remain unhappy;
6. They are unhappy but they continue to tolerate GMA.
   

More than ten years ago, a friend who spent more than six years in Moscow to study cinematography shared this joke with me:

The 6 paradoxes of socialism

1. there is no unemployment but nobody works;
2. nobody works but everybody gets paid;
3. everybody gets paid but the shops are empty;
4. the shops are empty but all get what they need;
5. they all get what they need but remain unhappy;
6. they remain unhappy but they all vote for the communist party.

The comparison might be a little stretched, but there are a few parallels. Let me be candid. I took part, as a communist then, in securing a scholarship for the friend above in Moscow. I have many unanswered questions about what may come next if we kick out Gloria. But I can't stand the lying that passes off as governance.

My goodness, Ambassador Kristie Kenney!

If you were quoted properly in this Inquirer report US envoy backs 'accidental gas explosion' theory, you should immediately issue a clarification.

BAGUIO CITY -- The Philippine National Police’s “accidental gas explosion” theory has found another backer in US Ambassador Kristie Kenney, who said American experts had also concluded that the Oct. 19 blast at the Glorietta 2 mall in Makati City was “a tragic accident.”

Kenney, who was in Baguio for several engagements, said those saying otherwise should realize what a terror attack in Metro Manila would mean to the country as a whole.

“[An accident in the heart of a city] is never a good thing … but it is much better than having it [turn out] to be a bomb,” the ambassador said Tuesday.

“If there was a bombing at a shopping mall in the middle of Metro Manila, I want you to think about the kind of travel advisory America would have to put out and the devastating impact that would have on business,” she said, adding:

“I don’t think investors worry about an accident,” although the business community would “obviously want to know why it happened.”

You should realize by now that your unfortunate remarks just add fuel to the fertile minds of local conspiracy theorists who will now say you're in cahoots with authorities in a very complicated cover-up, because the logic of your statements is this: better think about the effects of a theory borne out by the facts, because they can be more devastating than the blast. Better to tailor the 'cause' to the 'desired effect' is what you seem to have said.

This is how the embassy release should read:

"We support all efforts to let the evidence speak for itself."

Publish this and you can gracefully shut up.

Snared in Pinky's Web

Helplessly trapped in Pinky's web on ANC this morning was the arachnophobic Rep. Prospero Nograles, who confessed on the Malacanang meeting last Saturday. Naplantsa na ang gusot. All's well in the family known as the Mafia in Sicily.

Jose de Venecia to Gloria: There's nothing you can do to change my mind about you...
Gloria: Buang man ka dong. Pakusia kos imong bugan bi.

Pakistan and the Philippines: Notes on variations on a theme of oft-sung songs dictators sing

After hearing the news on Pakistan yesterday, I asked an American colleague whether he could imagine GMA taking a leaf from the best-selling song hits of Musharaf. After a few glasses of wine we listed the following observations about dictators:

1. They are infected by a virus called messianism. They want to save us from ourselves.
2. That they claim they can do so because they know something we don't.
3. And when we ask for the info we don't know, they say we shouldn't even know what it is we don't know.
   
4. They have info we don't because we can't handle it soberly.
5. They can handle the info better because, they don't really want to rub it in, they are superior.
6. They are superior, because, not having been breast-fed, they steeled themselves drinking milk from the bottle.
7. But most of all, they were not born with sin, having been immaculately conceived inside the womb of their parents' cow.
8. Moo! You know nothing about national security!
9. They get invited to international conventions of solipsists and we don't.
   

All dictators spring from the old obscurantist tradition that they hear things from the creator reserved for true believers.

As oil prices poise to breach a hundred per barrel, energy secretary Angelo Reyes does the right thing: Nothing.

Reyes is doing right by not announcing any populist moves. After all, at least as far as I'm concerned, the oil deregulation regime has been doing just fine. If we were in the late '80's or mid-90's, the scandal-ridden administration would already have been ousted by a coup by right-wing adventurists, who, in those times, timed their moves based on the movements of prices in the world oil market.

It is now close to a decade since we finally smashed the old illusion that oil price subsidies were pro-poor, perpetuated for a long time by the middle and upper class leaders of so-called 'people's organizations.' Note that at that time nominal prices were below 20 dollars per barrel. Now the high is about five times. But we don't hear of any outrageous manifestos that the increase is caused by the local ruling class in conspiracy with foreign capitalists, do we?

I have a list of measures the energy secretary might consider, but none of these will lower gasoline prices for the middle class. In the meantime, he should just stand his ground.

Here's a list of easy energy saving tips promoted by Iran's revered president.

Barangay elections and how Abalos is laughing now...

If you're reading this, you're probably one of those who didn't bother to vote in the barangay elections. You can be excused because most in the middle class don't appreciate what village officials really do, aside from ensuring our homes and cars in our 'exclusive' villages, some situated on streets actually maintained and lit by the taxpayer at large.

But this new scandal at the Comelec cries out for attention.

To ANC's Marieton Pacheco: did they bend your rmind?

Members of the Psychic Entertainment Network were featured in ANC yesterday. One remote-sensor, a mind reader, and a telekineticist. The mind-reader begged off from displaying his skills. Yes, the trio were careful to describe the abilities as 'skills' rather than as special powers.
The remote-sensor, with a metal blindfold, was able to pick milk from a set of five glasses; the other four contained water. In his commercial act, he said, the four would have contained acid.
The fork bender impressed Pacheco because after quick hand-wringing movements, he seemed to have bent the teeth and even the handle. Had I been there, I would have re-arranged the tests to eliminate loopholes in the demonstrations.
I would have placed a black hood on the remote-sensor and a plastic sheet in front of the bender.
Here's an informative video from Michael Shermer, my favorite skeptic, on spoonbending.

Here's my challenge to Marieton. If you claim you were not taken in for a good ride, let's invite the PEN at my expense and at a place and time of their choosing.
If they pass my tests, good. We can hire them to lecture to all the bloggers out there, brimming with self-importance, to hone their skills enough so that we can finally concentrate on GMA, and force her to leave Malacanang telekinetically. Deal?

Mukha Mukasey; implications for the Philippines

The Democrats, because of attorney-general-nominee Mukasey's amiable face, are inclined to confirm him, except for this one fly in the ointment: Mukasey refuses to say whether waterboarding constitutes torture.
In a previous post, I pointed out that a senate Democrat mentioned the case of a US soldier who was prosecuted for using waterboarding on a Filipino insurgent. The effect of the method is to make the captive feel he is drowning. Now, if that is not torture, I don't know what is.
In his speech at the Heritage Foundation yesterday, George W. explained his tortured logic why Congress should just confirm the nominee immediately:

1. If the menu of methods in interrogation were to be published, suspected terrorists could adopt mitigation measures. How? By bringing scuba gear or snorkels all the time, during suicide missions, especially, I suppose. And Osama might send his trainees to explore the rich marine life in the Philippines in aid of proper certification as a torture-proof and dead terrorist. That makes sense and would be good for Philippine tourism. (How about this Ace Durano and GMA? Why don't you testify bravely against your idol?)
   
2. Mukasey has not been briefed on the method and could not possibly make a judgment. So brief him immediately then.
3. The whimpy Democrats, ever soft on national security, are just making political hay.
4. Finally leading to his pitch on the "war on terror", soi-disant, the US should employ all means to accomplish the ends of his foreign and phallic fallacy.
   

The New York Times explains Mukasey's refusal better: the administration does not want to open the door to prosecution of those who used the method before it came to public attention.
Does this debate have any implications for the Philippines? Are our definitions of torture rigorous? What are these?

Ruben Carranza Jr., formerly defense assistant secretary under Erap, recently reminded me that since EDSA 1, no one has been prosecuted successfully for torture. What a shame.

A new voice on ANC?

At dinner last Sunday, my guest revealed that DJB_Rizalist would soon have a variety/talk show on ANC. That would be a fine addition to the channel's steadily improving menu. The guest, a mid-level Palace official, said there were just a few more hurdles before this new baby of Twink Macaraeg could be delivered by Caesarian bisection. Hail,hail! I will not reveal her identity on grounds of national security, on which Dean is notoriously obsessed.

The Dean, the most famous , opinionated, outspoken, and sometimes bullying 'neocon' blogger from the Philippines will now have access to a greater audience, or, should I say, we will now have greater access to his independent and sometimes courageously outrageous opinions.
The Philippine Onion's media critic, The Small and Medium, has the complete story. Tim Sebastian rejects ANC offer.

Donald Rumsfeld on Glorietta blast:it's WMD, stupid!

This is my response to John Nery's recent blog Sleepless in Glorietta:

Dear John,

Skepticism is generally healthy, especially when it is solidly grounded. I have examined the premises of yours and find them wanting. To summarize, you “have a hard time believing” the conclusion because:

1. A few hours after the explosion, the PNP Chief himself aired the possibility that the blast was caused by a bomb. Yet, the well-written editorial you adverted to had this correct assertion: We recognize their testing of new theories as consistent with the emergence of new facts. Rather than being a basis for skepticism, this point tends to diminish it.
2. The visits by the PNP top brass to the various newsrooms were highly unusual. It could be that this is merely the way the new Chief does business, but as one can readily see from a comparison of the same-but-different front pages of the Inquirer and the Star the day after the visit, this kind of unusual attention stokes a journalist’s hard-earned skepticism. Couldn’t this have (when was this visit?) been just a media management attempt on such a disconcerting incident? I wonder why the Inquirer did not have the more appropriate headline “PNP officers visit PDI, eat own crow in front of editors!” consistent with your head “Palace fixes 190 congressmen” on the bribes scandal.
3. The police generals were quick to adopt an aw-shucks attitude when questioned about the technical details of the (new) theory they were proposing. But since then, police have also released a lot of information tending toward the gas blast theory, including the two reports featured in a special section of PDI with many photos of the basement which showed no signs of a bomb explosion.
4. My own sources tell me about other findings, other “facts” unaccounted for in the new theory. Unfortunately, I am not in a position to corroborate what they say. Why don’t you share these ‘facts’ for the careful consideration of your anxious readers? The Inquirer should also post the Australian report in its website.

The officials should be castigated for their rush to judgment early on. On the other hand we can’t be faulted for our rush to skepticism considering the current political atmosphere. But might we be faulted for a lingering, adamant, and unreasonable skepticism oblivious of the established facts already made available? A professional skeptic like me was instantly skeptical of the members of the Psychic Entertainment Network featured in ANC yesterday, but that is because of my appreciation of mainstream science. Would you happen to know of any arcane scientific findings which cast doubt on the gas blast theory? In other words, tell us what in the future needs to be established for you to find the theory easier to believe.

Before I forget let me attempt to dispose of the initial finding of RDX on one sample from the ground floor. In my earlier and long blogs on the subject, I raised the possibility that this was simply a false positive, owing to the limitations of the test itself. Because of the absence of reference to this in the reports of the foreign investigators, I take it that they were not able to replicate the result, and did not emphasize the fact out of professional courtesy to their local counterparts. I have read almost all the PDI articles on the blast but could not find any reference to any of your reporters pursuing this false positive angle.

Finally, your skepticism reminds me of ex-defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s disengenuously original defensive remark: The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence in regard to the failure of investigators to find the slightest trace of WMD in Iraq post invasion.

Sincerely yours,

viking logarta

Dead but not buried

If you're reading this coming in from the Halloween holidays, let me tell you this. If you thought Speaker Joe de Venecia will no longer be around, either you are dead, or just dead wrong. While you were away, the presidential security guard (PSG) was able to thwart another Palace coup. By the dead asking why she had not joined them as she had promised years ago.

The dead but not buried.

After all, the dead represent the largest constituency in Philipine politics.

Ermita's autumn in New York

To the chagrin of some quarters who had hoped he would no longer show up in the Palace, chief of staff Eduardo Ermita returned to his post yesterday, but continued to fuel the ever louder murmurs of the supposed irreconcilable rift with DILG secretary Ronaldo "Goebbels" Puno. The issue was no longer the bribes scandal allegedly masterminded by the latter without a by your leave from the latter.

The issue this time was over who sent the list of nominees for the Comelec vacancies to the poll body. Irregular, Ermita said. Normal, Goebbels shot back in a fashion which somehow looks credible because he seems to really believe what he is saying. "Rift, what rift?' he asked in the manner of one who's savoring the upper hand but who self-consciously wants to look magnanimous.

Ermita was at least greeted by a congratulatory press release (warning:you might find the image offensive) on the success of his mission from the Palace, based on his own account. Ah but for the small kindnesses one gives oneself in times like these.

For it was Fall in New York, where he was dogged by the pesky human rights activists, and the aunt of Jonas Burgos, who confronted him in a forum, where he had
a civil but tense exchange with former PCGG commissioner and defense assistant secretary Ruben Carranza Jr., now a fellow at the International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ).

Ruben, a former student of UN special rapporteur Philip Alston, whose report on the Philippines was dismissed by Malacanang, says he can't believe Alston believed anything Ermita said at the meeting in the UN.

The Erap pardon in perspective

The most erudite analysis of the Erap pardon I've read so far is this post from Leon, the boy blogger from outer space. He should know. His dad was in the thick of heroic efforts to recover Marcos ill-gotten wealth when there was still a hint of a glimmer of a small hope in the GMA administration.

Here, Leon gives the tongue to palace mouth Ignacio Bunye as the latter made the official announcement.

Glorietta 2: the gas blast was a palace conspiracy

An independent team of undercover probers has published its report on the Glorietta incident.

Without question, the blast was a palace conspiracy to divert attention from the scandals facing the administration.

The spooks in their safe house

Erap in his own tortured words, days before the pardon

The Philippine Onion has this exclusive on the state of Erap's mind in the days prior to his release. Who are you to judge him?

Pardon me, madam, but I can't pardon you

Just less than thirty minutes ago, this man announced that former President Joseph Estrada, whose impeachment and subsequent extra-constitutional ouster I supported, was granted executive clemency, his civil and political rights restored.

While I feel sympathy and compassion for the former president, I believe the aspiration for justice and fairness for the population at large trumps these feelings.

I probably had sleepless nights after I 'stole' a few pesos from my mother's wallet to buy cigarets in childhood. My mother eventually pardoned me, but that was just between the two of us. I will never be charged and convicted of plunder, as I have no political ambitions, low or high, and thus will never have the chance to be pardoned.

Mrs. Arroyo, your purported act of compassion and reconciliation also shows how weak and cold you are, because the move cannot but be motivated by the preroragatives of political survival. If and when you are convicted of high crimes in the future, we will not pardon you.

Here's the transcript of the announcement, courtesy of but without permission from DJB:

Whereas this administration has a policy of releasing prisoners who have reached the age of 70,

Whereas Joseph Ejercito Estrada has been under detention for six and a half years,

Whereas Joseph Ejercito Estrada has publicly committed to no longer seek any elective position or public office,

In view hereof, and pursuant to the authority conferred upon me by the Constitution, I hereby grant executive clemency to Joseph Ejercito Estrada, convicted of plunder by the Sandiganbayan of plunder and imposed the penalty of reclusion perpetua.

He is hereby restored to his civil and political rights. The forfeitures imposed by the Sandiganbayan remain in force and in full, including all writs and processes issued by the Sandiganbayan in pursuance hereof, except for the bank accounts he owned before his tenure as President.

Upon acceptance of this pardon by Joseph Ejercito Estrada, this pardon shall take effect. Given under my hand, at the City of Manila, this 25th day of October, in the year of our Lord, 2007.

Signed,
Gloria M. Arroyo

Attested,
Ignacio R. Bunye,
Acting Executive Secretary.

Are you planning to pardon this guy too?

Cool way to cool the globe

IS this a whacky way to cool the globe? It doesn't seem so.

DESPITE growing interest in clean energy technology, it looks as if we are not going to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide anytime soon. The amount in the atmosphere today exceeds the most pessimistic forecasts made just a few years ago, and it is increasing faster than anybody had foreseen.

Henning Wagenbreth

Even if we could stop adding to greenhouse gases tomorrow, the earth would continue warming for decades — and remain hot for centuries. We would still face the threat of water from melting glaciers lapping at our doorsteps.

What can be done? One idea is to counteract warming by tossing small particles into the stratosphere (above where jets fly). This strategy may sound far-fetched, but it has the potential to cool the earth within months.

Mount Pinatubo, a volcano in the Philippines that erupted in 1991, showed how it works. The eruption resulted in sulfate particles in the stratosphere that reflected the sun’s rays back to space, and as a consequence the earth briefly cooled.

Or we can also shoot missiles with the appropriate payload.

NBN: intrigue and witness-tampering as hearings resume

The NBN hearings resume today. These two stories Paid witness to appear at NBN probe---Puentebella which came first, and Lacson:ex-ZTE consultant asks money for testimony suggest witness tampering, and there seems to be agreement as to the facts cited by the admin congressman and Ping Lacson. But what's the real story?

Glorietta 2: After bomb theory bombs, nature and source of gas remains mystery

Notwithstanding their hedging about continuing to look at all angles, the authorities yesterday virtually ruled out a bomb blast in the Glorietta 2 incident. For NW, the absence of a blast crater or any other signs of shear and gashes on the equipment and walls of the basement is a sufficient condition to discard the bomb hypothesis. The sample testing positive for RDX is irrelevant, although doubting Juans and Juanas don't think so.

Crude but fairly informative and convincing presentations were issued by the PNP - Inter-agency anti-arson task force (IATF) Thunderbolt to the media here and here. There are diagrams, charts, photographs (many without labels and captions) and in sum the presentations are much more than I expected from our police, whose efforts must be recognized. The only spoilers are the faces, in news clips, of security adviser Norberto Gonzales, DILG secretary Ronaldo Puno, and palace mouth Ignacio Bunye, shameless clowns who had engaged in earlier fear-mongering.

Ayala Land casts doubt on theory

At noon yesterday, Ayala Land president presented an enumeration of facts to the press (and posted in their website at my request), tending to cast doubt on the gas explosion hypothesis. ABS-CBN chose to spin the story as Ayala Land Rejects PNP industrial blast theory which is a reasonable interpretation. The enumeration was reportedly finished only Tuesday night and shared with the authorities only yesterday morning. It appears that these so-called facts do not have much relevance to the preliminary findings. Here's a list of the facts Ayala presented:

GLORIETTA 2 BASEMENT

1. Basement dimensions: 178 sqm floor area; approx. ceiling height: 2.28m

2. Diesel fuel tank: Last used in June during last power outage; capacity: approx. 14,000 liters; estimated content on day of incident: 6,000 liters; the flash point of diesel contained is 72 degrees Celsius and auto ignition temperature is 220 degrees Celsius. There are no maintenance reports or observations by maintenance personnel of any aberrations to the diesel tank.

3. Fuel transfer pump: transfers diesel fuel from storage tank at basement 2 to day tank at the roof deck.

4. Ventilation: basement is ventilated by air entering the approx. 2.4m x 2.4m opening at stairwell connected to delivery bay area

5. Ambient room temperature: estimated range from 28 to 30 degrees Celsius

6. Grease trap: separates grease from wastewater entering the sump pit; maintained daily for one hour together with cleaning of basement.

7. Sump pits (there are two types of sump pit):

a. Kitchen sump pit (approx .1.5m x 1.5m x 2m): Wastewater from kitchens of five restaurants in Glorietta 2 enters the sump pit. The grease trap separates the grease from the wastewater (grease is extracted daily, every morning). A pump in kitchen sump pit pumps out wastewater to the main city sewer line automatically (there is a standby sump pump).

b. Waste sump pit (approx. 1.5m x 1.5m x 2m): Wastewater from toilets in a portion of Glorietta 2 is dumped into sump pit (21 water closets; 20 lavatories; 8 urinals). Due to the nature of customer use of toilets in restaurants, waste is seldom solid and mostly liquid (per our sewage expert opinion approx. 98% liquid). Wastewater enters sump pit and is pumped out to street sewer by a sump pump (there is a standby sump pump). Therefore, there is constant flow of mainly liquid wastewater from the toilets into the sump pit and on to the city sewer. Wastewater entering the sump pit stays in the sump pit for less than 24 hours. The usual decomposition process brought about by large amounts of solid matter in house septic tanks does not occur in this commercial sump pit.

The major element casting doubt on the gas explosion theory is the claim in item 7, which tends to show that there could not have been any significant methane generated by the sump pits, and the claim in the conference that there was nothing out of the ordinary reported by maintenance personnel in regard to the waste water system (the two sump pits and corresponding pumps). However, a maintenance man interviewed by police belies the latter claim. In regard to the amount of methane present, it depends on how much waste had accumulated contrary to the claim of a 24-hour maximum residence time. Also, it is possible that gas could have come from the sewer lines to which the pumps were connected (backflow) and this would have provided enough methane.

What can we make of the diesel tank and the role of the fuel in the explosion? The photos in the presentation show a rupture in the lateral joints of, and a hole in the steel plate covering. There appear to be no signs of soot anywhere. The diesel flash point seems irrelevant here, this parameter indicating the lowest temperature which generates enough vapor which, alone, can be ignited, but at which combustion stops if the ignition source is withdrawn. At temperatures below flash point, there is still some vaporization, and if the tank had a leak (not evidenced by police photos), these vapors would have escaped and mixed with the more volatile methane. The auto-ignition temperature is entirely irrelevant. If the tank had no leak, then, I suspect the methane ignited first, heating the tank, vaporizing the contents very quickly, rupturing the cover. The diesel fumes mix with the methane in part of the explosion. If you look inside the dieseltank you'd see that there is some fuel left (but not yet measured). The explosion could have bled the air dry of oxygen very quickly and/or had snuffing effect.

The claim that maintenance personnel reported no aberration with the diesel tank is also not very useful, since the last time the generators were on was in June.

In any case, what should be the most intellectually satisfying proof of the gas explosion theory would be a computer simulation or real scale model simulation or both.

RDX again

To some, the RDX positive test constitutes a loose end. I suppose the foreign investigators would have tested a sample from the same material (found on the ground floor by an Army man) but could not replicate the result. That should be the end of that. No need to explain further that RDX is also found in other (non-explosive) substances.

In the press conference, no reporters confronted Ayala Land spokesman Alfie Reyes about his earlier televised claim the basement was under the control of the Makati Supermarket operators, which he no longer repeated.

Mr. Ayala said the corporation would do right whatever the final findings. While it is easy for them to purchase reasonable doubt at a reasonable cost in the criminal and civil proceedings that will follow, let's hope he keeps his word.

(Glorietta 2 constitutes a mere 0.34 percent of total Ayala Land revenues).

How a Filipino insurgent was tortured. Damn, I wish our confirmation process was like theirs

I've been following the confirmation hearings (on C-Span and the NYT) of Michael Mukasey, George W.'s nominee to replace the unlamented Alberto Gonzales, and wish that our processes were as rigorous.

Last night, Mukasey was grilled by senators (mostly Democrats, among them Stephen Whitehouse of Rhode Island)) about his views on executive privilege, non-disclosure agreements, and the public's right to information. His answers were diametrically opposed to those of his predecessor.

However, Mukasey failed to assuage fears in regard to the use of torture in extracting information from terrorism suspects. He hedged big time in regard to water-boarding, saying that if water-boarding is determined to be torture, then it would be unconstitutional. The senators could not extract any more information on his views on the matter, stopping short of physically and mentally torturing him on the matter any further.

What really caught my attention was the account recounted by one of the senators of how a US soldier was prosecuted for using water-boarding on a Filipino insurgent in 1901.

I wish I could get my hands on the transcripts of Raul Gonzales's confirmation hearings, though I understand that he has never been confirmed and that the Gloria just keeps re-appointing her sycophant on a temporary basis. What is the limit to the executive's power to reappoint? I don't know, but this clearly runs counter to what the Constitution intends.

I am tempted to make a bigotted remark about people with the surname Gonzales, but I know better because I have so many friends with that surname and I have no wish to inflict a tortured argument on you.

Glorietta 2: accidents, beliefs, surprises, and relief

"The opinions for which people are willing to fight all belong to one of three classes which this scepticism condemns. When there are rational grounds for an opinion, people are content to set them forth and wait for them to operate. In such cases people do not hold their opinions with passion; they hold them calmly, and set forth their reasons quietly. The opinions that are held with passion are always those for which no ground exists; indeed the passion is the measure of the holder's lack of rational conviction. Opinions in politics and religion are almost always held passionately.

The extent to which beliefs are based upon evidence is very much less than believers suppose."

Bertrand Russell in Sceptical Essays

My early doubts about the bomb hypothesis in the Glorietta blast arose after seeing the footage of the area and the anecdotes of those in the vicinity during the incident, and early reports that the blast had been determined to have emanated from the basement, and assumptions about the 'reasonableness' or cost-minimizing behavior of terrorists, and the materials and equipment the basement was said to contain. For example, why would terrorists plant a bomb in the basement (one investigator speculated that 10 kilos of C4 could have been used) when much more impact could be expected at better locations?)

In my earlier post, I said:

I have not closed my mind to a methane-based explosion, more consistent with the footage I’ve seen. Likely I will be proven wrong.

At least three media reports today tend to lend more support to the accident hypothesis: the Inquirer's, ABS-CBN's, and GMA.tv's investigators doubt bomb theory. What stands out in all these reports are the early signs of NCR police director Geary Barias's independence. Whether this is due to character or fear of being contradicted by parallel efforts of foreign investigative agencies, it is still a hopeful sign that the real facts will come out from the official probe. We must aslo note that Barias's refusal to rule out the accident hypothesis appears to be a direct and courageous contradiction of the Gloria and the Venable and silly national security adviser, who claimed that terrorists were on a fund-raising effort by way of demonstration, perversely trying to make political hay out of the tragedy. Surprisingly too, Senator Panfilo Lacson, whose democratic impulses I doubt, counseled circumspection and sobriety in contrast to the amateurish, naive and messianic Senator Trillanes, whose belief in the incredible Operation Greenbase made me cringe in disbelief. (Disclosure: Geary Barias's activist brother Manny, with a medical practice in the US, is a long-time friend).

Here's part of GMA.tv's report:

On whether the blast might have been caused by other factors besides a bomb, Barias said "anything is possible."

He said investigators confirmed that the origin of the explosion was located at the basement of the Glorietta 2 and not on the first floor.

Barias said there was a possibility that the blast was caused by an accident rather than an explosive device. "We are also looking into that. All angles are being explored."

Last Saturday before a National Security Council meeting in Camp Crame, Barias told reporters that investigators took samples from the first floor and found no trace of nitrates.

"The explosion damaged the floor, under which revealed an underground which serves as a tool room. There was supposed to have been an oil, water, and grease depot there," Barias said then.

Later in that meeting, the PNP Crime Laboratory and the Philippine National Police (PNP) Bomb Data Center said they found traces of RDX, an ingredient used in explosives including C4 which is used by the military.

But on Sunday, Barias said that the presence of RDX would have to be verified by "additional testing."

In a television interview, Alfie Reyes, corporate spokesman of Ayala Land Inc. which owns the mall, said he would leave the issue of what caused the blast to investigators.

He clarified that the basement where the blast might have originated was being occupied by one of their tenants at the Makati Supermarket. "We are also trying to obtain information from them because they are the ones who know what is in that basement and what activities, if any, occurred in that basement," Reyes said.

He added that the Makati Supermarket had access and security control over the basement.

An investigator at the area told the Philippine Daily Inquirer Sunday afternoon that tests done by bomb experts from the US revealed no traces of RDX or any other explosive material. "Their results are negative for any solid explosive material. They have a different style [of detecting RDX]."

The investigator, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to reveal details of the investigation, also explained that the Americans took a swab sample of the explosive material from the bombsite and smudged it on the TV screen of an analysis machine which gave them a chemical composition of the sample. "We asked them to calibrate their machine and try again. They still got a negative result," the source said.

The PNP Crime Laboratory, on the other hand, drops a certain liquid into debris recovered from the bombsite. "When the sample turns a certain color, then it will indicate the kind of chemicals present. But it could be that the samples are contaminated," the source said.

The source said that at least six Americans from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the US Navy Seals and an Explosive Ordnance Division (EOD) unit have been helping out in the probe. Later in the afternoon, experts from Australia also arrived.

The American experts, the source said, tested six samples from different locations at least three times. "There were samples taken from 500 meters from the blast site and also at the seat or source of the blasts, in this case the hole that was caused."

He also confirmed that the blast originated from a bunker oil container the size of a 20-foot container van located near a septic tank. The area also contained aircon exhaust vents, a generator set, empty diesel tanks, and fuel that might have emitted dangerous fumes.

"The confluence of the mixture of gases trapped inside a confined space will look for an outlet and needs release," the expert said.

The source also noted that the blast did not cause fire, as compared to explosions caused by C4 or TNT which would cause black or gray smoke. "The kind of damage we saw is consistent with enormous pressure being released. Gases like methane don't show up in the kind of tests already done," said the source.

The source said investigators should be finished with their probe of the basement before midnight Sunday.

I heard the interview by ANC's Lia Andanar Yu of Ayala Land spokesperson Alfie Reyes, and it was apparent that he was already laying the groundwork for a legal defense against what could be a large liability suit. He pointed out that the basement was under the control of the tenant, Makati Supermarket. I wonder what else were in the basement aside from a 4000-liter diesel tank, a waste oil/water separator (I suppose a centrifuge; having worked in a diesel power plant ages ago, I know how such things work), grease, and a septic tank. A very explosive combination.

Some pundits had seized upon a PNP chemist's hesitation about mentioning C4 as early 'evidence' of a coverup. But one test of one sample indicating trace amounts of RDX is far from conclusive. More than eight semesters of chemistry (basic, organic, inorganic, quantitative, qualitative, biochem, phychem) taught me that most tests have varying rates of false positives, when a test is wrong for various reasons, whether the intrinsic limitation of a test or the carelessness of a lab technician.

(Aside: It took me a long while to get over the fact that I tested positive for shabu during the last renewal of my driver's license. The colorimetric drug test (urinalysis) also tested for cannabis, and I was tempted to taunt the technician that the test was wrong on both counts. I did not because the technician had made up her mind based on my appearance ---profiling? (I hope you get this joke). Eventually, I refused to take the more expensive confirmatory blood test and asserted my rights and returned to the clinic, and without paying any additional fee, got a negative result. The other test mentioned in the GMA report, is diffusion spectroscopy, a much more expensive one but with lesser tolerance for error.
When I was with the Ministry of Energy in the early 80's, I was involved in the field and lab testing of the effectiveness of a colorimetric method (a marker dye added to the potential contaminants) for testing 'adulteration' of regular and premium gasoline with diesel and kerosene. If the sample tested positive, a second test, called RON test (research octane number which measures the anti-knock characteristic of a fuel) using, guess what, a bomb calorimeter, was used as a confirmatory test. Before the marker dye, the primitive method was a field test using a hydrometer to test the density (or specific gravity) of a sample compared to 'pure' gasoline).

What we really need to see are the hypothesis-testing protocols of the investigators, laying out a series of logical if-then-else statements. While it might be too much to expect that they would be familiar with Karl Popper's obsession with the falsifiability of hypotheses as a fundamental criterion in scientific statements, I am willing to be surprised, as I was with Dean Jorge Bocobo's post on gaseous deflagrations.

If the investigators eventually come to the conclusion that it was an accident, we might all be relieved to know that the Islamists and military rebels are not that stupid and that the Gloria is not that ruthless. Perverse? Perhaps...

The CSI on Glorietta 2; RDX, C4, etc; and the economics of speculation and terror risk mitigation

As of midnight last night, government blast forensics experts still could not conclude whether the explosion in Glorietta 2 which killed 10 and injured more than 100 others Friday was that of a bomb. Although traces of RDX (Research Department X), which constitutes 90% of the plastic explosive C4 were detected from the debris, it was pointed out that this has pharmacological uses (among them as a rat poison). Thus the speculation continues unabated as to the perpetrators, their motives, and the final effects.

The admonition against speculation came a bit late, because by then many had formed their own conclusions. Also, the right to speculate is an inalienable human right, the exercise of which is a matter of survival in a situation where the supply curve for truth and information, especially from official sources, hardlly ever satisfies public demand. In any case, speculation has not yet been declared an exclusive privilege of the executive. “Don’t speculate too soon,” the Venable national security adviser was advising. (So when is speculation timely?) Not so soon after, the security adviser was peddling his speculative take that ‘terrorists’ were on a fund-raising enterprise and that the blast was a simple demonstration of potential for the benefit of benefactors.

Having read and heard the reports, speculative and otherwise, in the past 36 hours, I was beginning to fear I would have nothing left to speculate on, as the ‘facts’ came in trickles. On second thought, I concluded, that would never happen, because I bet, even after the official reports are issued, classified, disseminated, and regurgitated, many of us would still be speculating on which facts were suppressed, how and which observations were ‘doctored’, and how the final and official versions of the truth were spun. In fact, even before the Glorietta incident, many of us were in the midst of speculating on the NBN and the Malacanang and House bribes.

(A broad aside: I suspect the speculation industry is one of the large emerging contributors to the national economic output. But being mostly in the informal sector, the value therefrom might not be reflected in official estimates. Maybe if these did, we might be growing at more than 10% annually. Or, conversely and more plausibly, our unrecognized and underpaid statisticians might have included such output but forgot to warn us, which explains our disbelief).

The output of the speculation industry is siginificant because of the abovementioned market conditions. On the supply (sellers) side, there’s a large pool of unemployed and underpaid/employed and self-proclaimed analysts/pundits who think they are bright, or at least brighter than those offering official truths. Thus, the supply curve is almost flat and also hardly distinguishable from the X-axis. This explains why, notwithstanding the large demand, the marginal price is close to zero in equilibrium. If you can think graphically, you’ll agree that the price-quantity product would still be a significant part of GDP.

(Another broad aside: some of the buyers are also self-generators, meaning they supply their own demand. If they are full of themselves they offer their excess supply to the informal and formal markets; otherwise they find time to appreciate the speculation and insights of others in the market. Most buyers, I suspect, are of the passive/voyeuristic kind (the gotum), experiencing gratification without ever thinking how to use the information to introduce changes in their lives and society at large. In the market I describe, the sellers are called speculators, the incident speculated on is called speculatum, and the elements or parts of the speculatum are speculatees, whose motives, means, opportunities and ideologies are the subject of the speculation or speculating; and the master of the speculatees is called the sputum).

The market conditions I describe are real and I am led to conclude that this type of speculation never creates a bubble that will burst or explode in our faces. In sharp contrast to speculation in commodity markets, where speculators have been known to lose their shirts and underwear, the players in our kind of speculation have nothing to lose: one is always better off speculating than having to swallow the shit our government excretes.

The economics of terror risk mitigation

What if the incident was indeed Islamic or rightwing or leftwing terrorism? I assert that the latter two are more reasonable and more predictable without rigorous discussion and proof. Let me tackle the first. These guys and girls are not so bright and we can probably treat the events they perpetrate as random acts impervious to benefit-cost analysis on their part, especially when some of them don’t value their own lives. Suicide bombers, unfortunately, are part of the equation and the amorphous inequalities we have to confront. So what then? I contend that the reasonable thing to do is to take the risk as part of life and mitigate the risk rationally. There is a large bodega of economics literature which shows that people don’t really behave reasonably, much less rationally. This is why, in the face of a large set of risks, our prioritization in terms of costs and benefits, leaves much to be desired. We always confront a large set of dangers to our well-being and we need to think of priorities soberly. Yes, terrorism is a real threat. But there are other graver threats the mitigation of which costs less. Think about poverty and environmental problems. We should allocate resources and attention guided by the facts, I hope.

Let me also point out that the risks from terrorism are inequitably distributed. On the side of victims, these are mostly urban and upper class, while the costs of mitigation, I suspect, are borne by taxpayers at large. You think that’s fair? To the extent that mall operators enhance security, well and good, as that cost will inevitably be passed on to shoppers.

The CSI on G2, RDX, C4 etcetera

I can only hope that the forensics experts are professionals, especially after observing that NCR police office director Geary Barias has maintained an open mind after premature disclosures. He has refused to jump to conclusions, though he is privately entitled to his own speculations. I have yet to see or hear of any systematic data gathering insofar as eyewitness accounts (a good collection is provided in Manolo Quezon’s blog) is concerned. Also, in a competent CSI, investigators are supposed to re-enact the incident. Including a time/space account of where the fatalities and other casualties were.

Were the dead properly autopsied? Have all the injured been interviewed? Have all the footages been examined?

Barias has said that he still could not rule out an accidental gaseous explosion as the blast has been determined as coming from the basement. What did the basement house? He said there was sewage ‘grease’. He could have meant waste oil and solid waste sludge. Have his investigators interviewed people in charge of the solid waste management system in the mall? I have not closed my mind to a methane-based explosion, more consistent with the footage I’ve seen. Likely I will be proven wrong. But I reserve and assert my right to speculate.

GMA and JDV: Liars, paradoxes, dilemmas

How will the standoff between JDV and GMA finally be resolved? In the past decade, at least three groups of economists have been awarded the Nobel prize for economics for expanding theory and application of game theory, which applies when each actor’s move/s depends on her/his expectation of the opponent’s move.

The classic example, unfortunately, is the prisoners’ dilemma, which was originally meant to illustrate how two actors, mistrusting each other in a one-shot game, would, acting in their own narrow-minded interests, forego the best outcome. This is because the two prisoners find it in their own best interest to betray rather than cooperate with each other. The sub-optimal equilibrium applies when there is no allowance for learning or repeated interactions between the players.

In the case of JDV and GMA however, it is in our best interest that once they’ve decided on their strategies, the outcome should be final and they both finally rest on their laurels and in their graves. This means that we need to design a game where there are no further interactions. How? Life without parole for both of them, and they self-destruct.

The Liar’s Paradox

A related problem in logic and philosophy is the Liar’s paradox. GMA says in a televised interview that she has asked for an investigation of the bribery scandal. Clearly, she is saying “I’m a liar.” Anyone who takes that statement at face value would face an unsolvable problem. How can she be telling the truth as she says she is lying. The argument is circular and the only solution is by appreciating a context outside the original statement. This is why Rene Saguisag’s demand for an independent inquiry acquires relevance.

Goodbye to long-winded arguments

In the early 1990's I had never-ending arguments with environmentalists about why the National Power Corporation did not include wind energy in its power portfolio. I would always answer that the costs were too high. I said I would agree if there were a democratic process where power consumers would be made aware that the wind option would significantly increase their bills.

Now here is a PCIJ feature by Jaileen Jimeno which finally proves the point, self -serving it might be for me. Since 2005, the power facility Jimeno discusses in the article has been operating.
I must point out , however, that she missed one important point, the economics of wind energy. Since the early 90's , costs have fallen by 80% while costs for the alternatives, especially for fossil fuels, mostly oil and coal, have been steadily increasing. Thus, it is no surprise that wind is now competitive and will become more so henceforth.

NBN: The devil hides the detail

The devil, it is said, is in the detail. Unfortunately for us, our senators and journalists have not shown much resolve in examining details, maybe out of plain incompetence or laziness. In this case, too, it is the devil herself hiding the detail.

When I first learned that the NEDA had refused the Senate’s request for the NBN documents, I couldn’t believe it. After the initial denial, I wanted to puke. I was so mad that for the first time this year, I honked my horn on the way to Greenbelt to watch a film in the Spanish movie festival. And I was doing 80 instead of my usual wimpy 60 kph.

You may not know it but the documents requested, at least some of them anyway, had already been made available to the media and posted in at least one website. I’m referring to (1) the minutes of the joint NEDA-ICC cabinet committee and the ICC technical board held March 26, 2007, and (2) the evaluation report of the NEDA infrastructure committee dated March 29. .

In a previous post, I pointed out that even these two documents in themselves constitute the smoking gun in the allegations of scandal in which the president was a willing conspirator, at worst, and as an accessory at best. Let me now explain in greater detail.

During that joint meeting, the ICC secretariat presented to the members a status report on the the NBN project . In the form and substance it had been presented to the last meeting, the minutes said, the NBN, covering the needs of national government agencies and city and municipal branches, and 23,549 elementary and high schools in the country’s first and second class municipalities, the whole project would have an economic internal rate of return (EIRR) of only13.01% Because the hurdle rate of NEDA is 15%, the NPV was a negative (-) P1.58B ), clearly a no go. Also, the Chinese government had indicated that it would not fund the connectivity to the schools, and the alternative to be explored was to replace the connectivity to 23,549 barangays (no mention in which cities and municipalities) and the NPV would be P652.13M and the EIRR would be a marginally improved 15.8%.

Recall that during the Senate blue ribbon hearings, Neri had asserted that the project, regardless of modality and financing sources, had an NPV more of than P10B and an EIRR of close to 30%.

IN any case, the presentation of the secretariat’s ended with the following recommendation:

In line with the government’s thrust of promoting digital infrastructure development for provision of ICT services across the country to address the digital divide, the Secretariat favorably recommends the project subject to the resolution of the above issues, especially on the replacement of school beneficiaries with barangay offices.

Three days later (!), the infrastructure committee of the NEDA-ICC issued its report. With the figures cited by Neri in the Senate hearings. But first, let me discuss what transpired after the presentation of the secretariat.

“Neri noted that the terms and conditions for the proposed loan for the project are not as concessionary as those for other Chinese-assisted projects such as the Northrail and the CEP projects. With an annual interest rate of 4% and repayment period of 10 years, inclsuive of 3 years grace period, Secretary Neri added that the terms are actually almost commercial.”

On project costs

Secretary Neri noted that among the alternatives being presented by the Secretariat were one in which the schools not covered by the CEP were considered, and one which excluded said schools. He inquired on whether school site engineering cost amounting to almost P1.4 M will be dropped in the event that the schools will be dropped from the project. He also sought clarification if the expense would be the same if the barangay offices, instead of the schools, are considered the project beneficiaries. The Secretariat confirmed that the site engineering cost will be dropped if the schools are excluded and that the cost would be the same if the barangay offices, instead of the schools, are considered as project beneficiaries. (Note that the locations of the schools and the barangays are not in the same geographical area.

On economic benefits

Secretary Neri inquired on how savings will be generated as a result of the retirement of old equipment. The Secretariat clarified that savings will be generated as the proponent will no longer have to buy expensive and non-readily available spare parts for the old analog system, as well as eliminate the cost for regular site inspection/network trouble-shooting and the required manpower due to the computerized /automatic network management feature, thereby resulting in savings in terms of operations and maintenance costs. The Secretariat added that the old eqipment will not be sold and in fact some of them will still be used .

Secetary Nery sought clarification on how VoIP savings translate into benefits for the government. The Secretariat replied that with the project, the government will reduce its fixed line subscription by as much as 50% and its fax and mobile phone costs by about 80%.

With regard to Secretary Nery’s inquiry on how the benefits resulting from having a centralized IDC are quantified, the Secretariat explained that the IDC can host all government applications software and databases. Thus, eliminating individual data centers and corresponding O&M costs.

In the March 26 meeting, there were a number of issues left hanging as indicated by the following:

1. The terms of the projected loan from the Chinese government as pointed out byh Neri;
2. Skepticism over how the savings were calculated. In the project evaluation report by the Infrastructure staff, the savings were in fact referred to as assumptions and not as best estimates or calculations. How can these be included in an economic valuation?
3. Finance Secretary Gary Teves asserted that the project as represented had to be clarified with the president because, in his own understanding, the president had a different concept.
4. DOF Undersecretary Paul had doubts about the projects consistency with existing policy.

Yet, in the Infrastructure staff report of March 29, the EIRR had shot up to 30% from the 15.8% initially presented in the March 26 meeting. This is clearly a case of underestimating costs and bloating the benefits to maximize the attractiveness of the project. Let me just focus on the projected benefits in the NEDA infrastructure staff’s spreadsheet calculations:

1. The savings from foregone operation and maintenance costs of the old DOTC equipment were included throughout the project life, at more than P500M per year for 15 years. As I asserted in a previous post, only the mentally retarded would count unnecessary MOE as savings when the system would have been useless in the near future anyway. If you have a car which will have to be discarded in a year or two, you just decide to stop using it period, and this decision is not related to your buying a new car later.
2. The savings from VOIP/landline/mobile subscriptions and internet connections are dubious, to be kind. As I’ve said, the NEDA infrastructure staff, taking DOTC figures at face value, referred to these as assumptions and not as rigorous estimates.
3. As for the internet connection savings, I noticed that these were assumed to decrease by 5% annually to reflect both greater competition and technological progress. Five percent? Just this year alone, I saved more than 50% by switching from Pacific to Sky DSL. In his Senate testimony, Neri lamented the fact that commercial broadband costs in the country were as much as a multiple of a hundred to costs abroad. If he had properly studied the calculations of his own staff, he himself would have concluded that the broadband service savings are ghost benefits, especially if Neri believed that the system can be improved with better regulation and freer entry.
4. In the meeting of March 26, Neri was uncomfortable with the 4% interest indicated by the Chinese government. Yet, in the NEDA infra staff evaluation, the loan interest was assumed to be at a maximum of 3%, a 25% reduction.

In short, the real and final question is, what happened between March 26 and March 29, when so many basic and controversial questions were resolved by the infra staff ?(hint: the Senate should ask Ruben Reinoso to testify; there might even be no further need to hear from Neri).

During the Senate hearings, Neri was asked if there was anything irregular in the time lapse between the economic evaluation report and the final NEDA board approval on April 20. He replied that this was not unusual. Except that April 20 was the eve of the signing of the contract in China, witnessed by the president herself.